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I just finished reading Elizabeth Kolbert's "Field Notes From A Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change." Each chapter in "Field Notes" is essentially based off of a different journalistic assignment of Kolbert (she writes for the New Yorker). So in each chapter Kolbert explains why she was in a particular place, recounts her interviews, and adds aditional context so that the reader realizes the gravity of the situation she is investigating. In short the book explores how climate change is already affecting the globe and how it will in the future. Kolbert also explores how politics and big corporations skew our perceptions of global warming, but I'll get to that in a different post. I highly recommend reading this book. It is short, very readable, and compelling.
Kolbert's experiences teach us that climate change is already having major effects, but that the future changes will be much more exaggerated and therefore, much harder to adapt to. The reason for this is that the climate system does not respond to a stimulus linearly. In other words, as time goes on, the same stimulus has a greater and greater effect. So, even if the global economy stopped growing, so that we generated the same emissions this year and next year and the next year (because currently, we emit more and more CO2 every year, thanks to both us and developing nations that are now using more energy), the earth is going to continue to get warmer. Part of the reason for this phenomenon is that there is an inherent delay in the climate system. The climate system is so big and so complex that it takes a long time (years to decades depending on the type of change) for it to reestablish an equilibrium. Much of the projected warming of the next century derives from anthropogenic actions that have already happened, and the climate system simply has yet to adjust. So even if we all miraculously disappeared tomorrow and the Earth was rid of us it would still get warmer in the coming decades because of things we put into motion.
The other major drivers of this non-linear relationship are climate feedbacks. The most well known and maybe the most detrimental is known as the ice-albedo feedback. Essentially, materials on earth's surface absorb and reflect differing fractions of incoming solar energy due to their physical properties. How efficiently something reflects incoming radiation is defined as its albedo. For instance a white surface (like ice) has a high albedo because it reflects lots of energy (90 to 50% of it), and a dark surface (like liquid water) has a low albedo because it absorbs lot of energy (~90% of it). Much of the reflected energy gets transmitted back to space, and thus does not warm our climate system. SO, as the climate system warms, we melt progressively more sea-ice, which exposes progressively more ocean water, which in turn absorbs more energy than the ice previously did, so the climate gets warmer faster, and melts more ice and so on. This process feeds back on itself and accelerates the rate of global warming. Positive feedbacks are scary.
But Kolbert's book is awesome. Kolbert explores climate change through a broad lens and interviews not only scientists, but also people who live in regions that are seriously affected by climate change. Additionally she interviews politicians at the municipal and national level. Kolbert starts by examining the visible effects of climate change on the “natural environment." She uses concrete examples such as shifting ranges of butterfly species in Europe, earlier molting times and shorter hibernation periods of mosquitoes, and the extinction of a tropical toad species due to prolonged droughts & the death of Costa Rican cloud forests. These changes are all due to our warming climate. These are not isolated events, but simply illustrative examples of common phenomena.
Kolbert also shows how climate change is already affecting
some human populations. For example, people in arctic Alaska, who depend on
stable sea-ice to hunt, are experiencing ice break-up at progressively earlier
times, and thus have less time and speace each year to gather their primary food source;
their very way of life is threatened. A quarter of the Netherlands lies below
sea-level, due to the extensive network of canals and levees in the lowlands
(very much like New Orleans and southern Louisiana). With continually rising
sea-level, maintaining the levees and canals which support these lowlands is no
longer feasible. The Dutch government is now paying people to abandon their
lands. The government is also funding housing developments on platforms that
can float during floods, because the frequency of floods in these areas is
simply too great for traditional housing.
There is also historical evidence of the negative effects of
climate change on civilization. Civilizations in Mesopotamia, Central and South
America, even the Roanoke colony, met their demise, at least to some degree,
due to extreme climate intervals (see this post for more on that topic). Kolbert
then asks us (p. 119) to consider the following: does man create stability through
culture and civilization or is stability (which includes climatic stability) an
essential precondition to culture and civilization? I ask you: How will we fare
in an increasingly unstable climate?
With our warming climate, the frequency and intensity of
droughts in the US will almost surely increase (p. 110). Will “amber waves of
grain” become a thing of the past, simply a memory of an earlier America? I
doubt it will get that severe in our
lifetime, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the cost of bread and
grain-based goods increase. The mighty Colorado River doesn't even reach the
Pacific, due to irrigation demands and increasing drought frequency. The
Ogallala Aquifer over the central US, which supports essential agricultural
lands, is being depleted at an unsustainable rate, and climate change will likely exacerbate this problem (Rosenberg et al., 1999). We all
acknowledge that political and social revolutions can drastically (whether for
better or worse) affect societies. It’s time to acknowledge that climate
instability (or rather, “revolutions”) can also dictate our ways of life.
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